KHL: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl vs. Avangard Omsk
Probability
54¢
1h
+30.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$8.7K
Liquidity
$158.94
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.
Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 6, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarybased on the final score including any overtime periods and shootoutsLinkTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 6, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (13.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Volume pressure
Heavy volume on this book — 54.5× turnover
$8.7k traded against $159 of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 13.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 6, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarybased on the final score including any overtime periods and shootoutsLinkTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 6, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (13.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 19:01SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 16:30ResolveHIGH
Market resolved 3h ago
Price movement
+0.5pp over the last 24h, now 54¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
In the upcoming KHL game, scheduled for 2026-05-06: If Lokomotiv Yaroslavl win, the market will resolve to "Lokomotiv Yaroslavl". If Avangard Omsk win, the market will resolve to "Avangard Omsk". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "KHL: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl vs. Avangard Omsk"?
As of Wed, 06 May 2026 19:01:42 GMT, YES is priced at 54% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.5pp in the last 24 hours, +30.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 6, 2026 (2026-05-06T16:30:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://en.khl.ru/calendar/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://en.khl.ru/calendar/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$8.7K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $8.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $158.94. Spread between best bid and best ask: 13.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
