Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-04-29?
Probability
16¢
1h
+1.5pp
24h
-2.5pp
24h Vol
$10.7K
Liquidity
$6.0K
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 29, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Apr 29, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 5 factors- 01Price move
Down 3pp over 24h
Now 16¢; +1.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Volume pressure
Heavy volume on this book — 1.8× turnover
$10.7k traded against $6.0k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.
- 03Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 04Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $6.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
- 05Resolution proximity
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 22:10SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 22:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolved 0h ago
Price movement
-2.5pp over the last 24h, now 16¢.
Biggest hourly move: -6.0pp at 18:00 (to 14¢).
Show top 8 of 10 hourly moves
- 21:00 · -4.5pp → 14¢
- 19:00 · -6.0pp → 14¢
- 18:00 · -6.0pp → 14¢
- 16:00 · -5.5pp → 14¢
- 15:00 · -5.5pp → 14¢
- 14:00 · -4.0pp → 16¢
- 2d ago · -3.5pp → 17¢
- 3d ago · -4.0pp → 17¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 29, 2026 If Independiente Santa Fe wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 29, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Apr 29, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.