CryptoExpires May 7, 2026
Creator

Spread: LDU de Quito (-1.5)

Probability

3¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-2.9pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$412.61

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 7, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
official statistics
Link
conmebollibertadores.com
Type
Official statistics
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires May 7, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-7.4pp 7d
Apr 29, 2026, 22:00May 6, 2026, 21:00
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-06T21-19Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 3pp over 24h

    Now 3¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 25h.

  • 03
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $413 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 25 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 24.7h

    HIGH
  • 21:19Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 25h.

    LOW

Price movement

-2.9pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.

Biggest hourly move: -30.0pp at 4d ago (to 11¢).

Show top 8 of 48 hourly moves
  • 22:00 · -5.5pp → 6¢
  • 1d ago · -5.5pp → 6¢
  • 1d ago · -4.5pp → 6¢
  • 1d ago · -5.0pp → 6¢
  • 1d ago · -5.0pp → 6¢
  • 2d ago · -5.0pp → 6¢
  • 2d ago · -5.0pp → 7¢
  • 4d ago · -30.0pp → 11¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventMirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito - More Markets
Category · Crypto

Market Description

In the upcoming Copa Libertadores game, scheduled for May 7 at 6:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "LDU de Quito" if LDU de Quito win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Mirassol FC". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on conmebollibertadores.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Crypto

Source

Gamma category hint

Matched term

Crypto

Reason

No rule fired; using Polymarket's own category hint "Crypto".

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Spread: LDU de Quito (-1.5)"?

As of Wed, 06 May 2026 21:19:12 GMT, YES is priced at 3% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -2.9pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -7.4pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 7, 2026 (2026-05-07T22:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://conmebollibertadores.com/.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://conmebollibertadores.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $0.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $412.61. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.9¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

No holder data from the Data API.

Open on Polymarket