Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon?
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+32.5pp
24h Vol
$177.35
Liquidity
$517.75
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 7, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 7, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 32pp over 24h
Now 100¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 0h. UMA dispute is active.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $518 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 0 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 7, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 7, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 00:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 0.3h
- 23:42SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 0h. UMA dispute is active.
Price movement
+32.5pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Biggest hourly move: +25.5pp at 23:00 (to 100¢).
Show top 8 of 26 hourly moves
- 23:00 · +25.5pp → 100¢
- 21:00 · +24.5pp → 100¢
- 20:00 · -24.5pp → 50¢
- 19:00 · -17.5pp → 57¢
- 01:00 · +17.5pp → 68¢
- 00:00 · +17.5pp → 68¢
- 1d ago · +17.5pp → 68¢
- 1d ago · +18.0pp → 68¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market is about whether both teams slay at least one elemental dragon during Game 1. In League of Legends, elemental dragons (Infernal, Mountain, Ocean, Hextech, Chemtech, and Cloud) spawn in the dragon pit starting at 5:00 game time. After being slain, the next dragon spawns 5 minutes later. Once a team claims the Dragon Soul (by slaying four dragons), all subsequent dragon spawns become Elder Dragons. This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Conviction and NRG Esports each slay at least one elemental dragon during Game 1. This market will resolve to "No" if either team (or both teams) does not slay any elemental dragon during Game 1. Only elemental dragons count toward this market — Elder Dragon kills do not count. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 is not played because the series result has already been determined (e.g., a team clinches the series before Game 1 is needed), this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 begins but is not completed and ends via surrender, this market will resolve based on whether both teams had slain at least one elemental dragon prior to stoppage. If the condition was not met, this market will resolve to "No". If Game 1 is remade, resolution will be based on the remade game only. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
SportsReason
No rule fired; using Polymarket's own category hint "Sports".
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon?"?
As of Wed, 06 May 2026 23:42:33 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +32.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 7, 2026 (2026-05-07T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://gol.gg/esports/home.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://gol.gg/esports/home. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$177.35 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $177.35. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $517.75. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
