SportsExpires May 16, 2026
Creator

LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner

Probability

100¢

1h

+59.5pp

24h

+40.0pp

24h Vol

$600.4K

Liquidity

$523.0K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED YES

Reason

YES price is near 100¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-in, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 16, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
gol.gg
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires May 16, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
100¢
May 10, 2026, 17:00 UTCMay 16, 2026, 13:41 UTC
updated 13:41:09 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-16T13-41Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 40pp over 24h

    Now 100¢; +59.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Momentum observation firing

    Probability moved up 40.0pp in 24h with 1.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 4h.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 4 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 17:15Scheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 3.6h

    HIGH
  • 13:41Signal

    Momentum up

    Probability moved up 40.0pp in 24h with 1.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH
  • 13:41Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 4h.

    LOW

Price movement

+40.0pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.

Biggest hourly move: +39.0pp at 13:00 (to 96¢).

Show top 8 of 23 hourly moves
  • 13:00 · +39.0pp → 96¢
  • 03:00 · +4.5pp → 61¢
  • 00:00 · +5.0pp → 61¢
  • 15:00 · +5.0pp → 60¢
  • May 15, 13:00 UTC · +5.0pp → 60¢
  • May 15, 12:00 UTC · +5.0pp → 60¢
  • May 15, 05:00 UTC · +5.0pp → 57¢
  • May 13, 05:00 UTC · +6.0pp → 56¢
updated 13:41:09 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 13:41:09 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventLoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market refers to the LoL match between BNK FEARX and Nongshim Red Force in the LCK Rounds 1-2, initially scheduled for May 16 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "BNK FEARX" if BNK FEARX win Game 2 against Nongshim Red Force. This market will resolve to "Nongshim Red Force" if Nongshim Red Force win Game 2 against BNK FEARX. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Sports hard marker

Matched term

lol:

Reason

Question text matched the sports hard-marker "lol:" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner"?

As of Sat, 16 May 2026 13:41:09 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +40.0pp in the last 24 hours, +59.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 16, 2026 (2026-05-16T17:15:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://gol.gg/esports/home.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://gol.gg/esports/home. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$600.4K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $600.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $523.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket