LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner
Probability
49¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
-10.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$2.0K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 14, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (31.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 10pp over 24h
Now 49¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 31.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 14, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (31.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 116.7h
- 22:19SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
-10.0pp over the last 24h, now 49¢.
Biggest hourly move: -11.5pp at 1d ago (to 48¢).
Show top 8 of 11 hourly moves
- 21:00 · -11.0pp → 47¢
- 18:00 · -11.5pp → 47¢
- 1d ago · -11.5pp → 48¢
- 4d ago · +11.0pp → 59¢
- 4d ago · +11.0pp → 59¢
- 4d ago · +11.0pp → 59¢
- 4d ago · +11.0pp → 59¢
- 4d ago · +11.0pp → 59¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 70¢+0.5
LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs
Sports · Vol $7.04
- 69¢+7.0
LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 48¢0.0
Games Total: O/U 2.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 54¢0.0
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢-0.5
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 51¢0.0
Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢-0.5
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢-0.5
Game 1: Any Player Quadra Kill?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 19¢0.0
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)
Sports · Vol $4.5M
- 0¢-39.5
Pistons vs. Cavaliers
Sports · Vol $4.4M
- 0¢-49.5
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09?
Sports · Vol $1.6M
- 1¢-0.1
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $1.2M
- 100¢+50.4
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)
Sports · Vol $1.2M
- 100¢+63.4
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hamad Medjedovic vs Joao Fonseca
Sports · Vol $1.1M
Market Description
This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between G2 Esports and Natus Vincere in the Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 14 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "G2 Esports" if G2 Esports win Game 2 against Natus Vincere. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Game 2 against G2 Esports. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
world cupReason
World Cup — Sports (qualified by election overrides above).
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner"?
As of Sat, 09 May 2026 22:19:09 GMT, YES is priced at 49% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -10.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.5pp in the last hour, and +0.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 14, 2026 (2026-05-14T19:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://gol.gg/esports/home.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://gol.gg/esports/home. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $8.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 31.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
