Game Handicap: MVK (-1.5) vs Ground Zero Gaming (+1.5)
Probability
57¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.7K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Resolves in 63h.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 12, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 12, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (33.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 63h. Spread is extremely wide.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 33.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 63 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 12, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 12, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (33.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoScheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 63.2h
- 23:50SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 63h. Spread is extremely wide.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 57¢.
Biggest hourly move: +10.5pp at 19:00 (to 57¢).
Show top 8 of 14 hourly moves
- 23:00 · +8.5pp → 57¢
- 21:00 · +8.5pp → 57¢
- 19:00 · +10.5pp → 57¢
- 18:00 · +9.5pp → 57¢
- 17:00 · +8.5pp → 57¢
- 15:00 · +8.5pp → 57¢
- 14:00 · +8.0pp → 57¢
- 13:00 · +7.5pp → 57¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 69¢+30.0
LoL: MVK Esports vs Ground Zero Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Asia-Pacific Qualifier Playoffs
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 65¢+0.5
LoL: MVK Esports vs Ground Zero Gaming - Game 1 Winner
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 65¢+0.5
LoL: MVK Esports vs Ground Zero Gaming - Game 2 Winner
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢-1.0
Games Total: O/U 2.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 26¢-24.0
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 68¢+17.5
Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 26¢-24.5
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 27¢-24.0
Game 1: Any Player Quadra Kill?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 20¢+1.0
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)
Sports · Vol $4.6M
- 100¢+50.4
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)
Sports · Vol $1.3M
- 1¢-0.1
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $1.2M
- 77¢0.0
Thunder vs. Lakers
Sports · Vol $1.2M
- 100¢+63.4
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hamad Medjedovic vs Joao Fonseca
Sports · Vol $1.1M
- 100¢+69.5
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims)
Sports · Vol $1.0M
Market Description
This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket round 1 match between MVK Esports and Ground Zero Gaming in the Esports World Cup Asia-Pacific Qualifier Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 12 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "MVK Esports" if MVK Esports wins 2 or more games than Ground Zero Gaming in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Ground Zero Gaming". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
world cupReason
World Cup — Sports (qualified by election overrides above).
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Game Handicap: MVK (-1.5) vs Ground Zero Gaming (+1.5)"?
As of Sat, 09 May 2026 23:50:33 GMT, YES is priced at 57% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 12, 2026 (2026-05-12T15:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://gol.gg/esports/home.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://gol.gg/esports/home. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $0.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 33.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.
