SportsExpires Aug 3, 2026
Creator

LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 - Game 2 Winner

Probability

70¢

1h

+0.5pp

24h

+26.5pp

24h Vol

$15.3K

Liquidity

$148.2K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

NEAR EXPIRY

Reason

Resolves in 3h.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Methodology explanation

Review-only opportunity

No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.

read_only_explanationpaper-onlysend false

Why this market is in review

signal

Momentum / follow-through

71% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Paper-only action

paper-only

Review-only opportunity

read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.

Risk / veto readback

review

Resolution review required

The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.

Source evidence

source

4 mapped surfaces

283/283 sources runtime-backed; all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false.

Signals

  • Momentum / follow-throughclear

    71% source confidence on this opportunity row.

  • Resolution-source riskwatch

    40% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Veto / blockers

  • Resolution review requiredwatch

    The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.

Costs / sizing

Research score
Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
47
Capacity
Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
$12k
Liquidity
Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
$148k
Explanation packet2026-06-16.1
DecisionSignalsVetoes and capsCostsDriftShadow policyLearning statusAuthority
What can be learned
Source-to-runtime coverage283/283 runtime-backed0 unmapped

all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false; this card cites mapped surfaces only.

P32-Source-to-Runtime-Coverage-Matrix-v1microstructure_quality_kernelexecution_markout_kernelsemantic_risk_kernel+3
live falsesecrets falsetraining falsenot advice

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Aug 3, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
gol.gg
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires Aug 3, 2026 — dispute window active.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
66¢
Jul 27, 2026, 16:00 UTCAug 3, 2026, 11:37 UTC
updated 11:37:30 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-08-03T11-37Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 27pp over 24h

    Now 70¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Light volume — move on a thin book

    Only $15.3k traded against $148.2k of visible liquidity (0.10× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Momentum observation firing

    Probability moved up 26.5pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

  • 04
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 3h.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 3 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

live to resolution sensitive
Trust transition

The market is still live, but settlement mechanics are becoming the most important thing to verify.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: https://gol.gg/esports/home

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Settlement state

required

Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved.

Current evidence: Near expiry

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 - Game 2 Winner State: Near expiry — live to resolution sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Settlement state: Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 - Game 2 Winner State: live to resolution sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 14:30Scheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 2.9h

    HIGH
  • 11:37Signal

    Momentum up

    Probability moved up 26.5pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH
  • 11:37Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 3h.

    LOW

Price movement

+26.5pp over the last 24h, now 70¢.

Biggest hourly move: +27.5pp at 10:00 (to 71¢).

Show top 8 of 51 hourly moves
  • 11:37 · +19.0pp → 66¢
  • 10:00 · +27.5pp → 71¢
  • 05:00 · -20.0pp → 42¢
  • 04:00 · -15.5pp → 45¢
  • 02:00 · -10.0pp → 45¢
  • 15:00 · -11.0pp → 45¢
  • Aug 2, 02:00 UTC · -8.0pp → 43¢
  • Jul 31, 17:00 UTC · +11.5pp → 62¢
updated 11:37:30 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

6
updated 11:37:30 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventLoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifier
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market refers to the LoL Round 1 match between Nongshim Red Force and T1 in the KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifier, initially scheduled for August 3 at 6:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Nongshim Red Force" if Nongshim Red Force win Game 2 against T1. This market will resolve to "T1" if T1 win Game 2 against Nongshim Red Force. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Sports hard marker

Matched term

lol:

Reason

Question text matched the sports hard-marker "lol:" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 - Game 2 Winner"?

As of Mon, 03 Aug 2026 11:37:30 GMT, YES is priced at 70% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +26.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Aug 3, 2026 (2026-08-03T14:30:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://gol.gg/esports/home.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://gol.gg/esports/home. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$15.3K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $15.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $148.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket