Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 18°C on April 24?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-7.8pp
24h Vol
$3.3K
Liquidity
$1.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 03:32SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 0¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.1pp
to 0¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.3pp
to 0¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.4pp
to 0¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.1pp
to 0¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.2pp
to 0¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.7pp
to 0¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 0¢
- 12:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolved 16h ago
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 24 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 24, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Market expires Apr 24, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).