Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 29?

• 01
  Price move

  Down 18pp over 24h

  Now 0¢; flat in the last hour.

• 02
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk signal firing

  Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• 03
  Liquidity

  Thin liquidity

  Only $5.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

• 04
  Resolution proximity

  Past expiry — awaiting resolution

  Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.