WeatherMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 5, 2026
Creator

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 5?

Probability

21¢

1h

-8.0pp

24h

-9.5pp

24h Vol

$552.06

Liquidity

$723.92

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Jun 5, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
weather.gov.hk
Link
weather.gov.hk
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires Jun 5, 2026 — dispute window active.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
21¢
Jun 3, 2026, 06:00 UTCJun 4, 2026, 11:03 UTC
updated 11:03:19 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-04T11-03Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 10pp over 24h

    Now 21¢; -8.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 25h.

  • 03
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $724 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 25 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification brief

liquidity sensitive

Liquidity is thin enough that movement can be noisy. Verify source context before reading the move as information.

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary official government source source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: weather.gov.hk

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram pilot prompt

Orrery verification task Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 5? State: Illiquid — liquidity sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official government source source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification post

Orrery verification brief Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 5? State: liquidity sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Source-drop audit

Submit durable sources that map to one resolution criterion.

Confirm the primary official government source source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent drops

Contributor audit

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 5, 12:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 24.9h

    HIGH
  • 11:03Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 25h.

    LOW

Price movement

-9.5pp over the last 24h, now 21¢.

updated 11:03:19 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 11:03:19 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

5
Same eventLowest temperature in Hong Kong on June 5?

Market Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Weather

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

temperature in

Reason

Question text contains "temperature in" — matched the Weather keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 5?"?

As of Thu, 04 Jun 2026 11:03:19 GMT, YES is priced at 21% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -9.5pp in the last 24 hours, -8.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 5, 2026 (2026-06-05T12:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$552.06 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $552.06. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $723.92. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket