Margot Robbie divorce by June 30?
Probability
12¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
-0.2pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$419.96
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryStatements from Margot RobbieTypePublic-figure statementConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (22.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-19.7pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 22.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryStatements from Margot RobbieTypePublic-figure statementConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (22.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 1080.4h
- 23:37SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
-0.2pp over the last 24h, now 12¢.
Biggest hourly move: -25.8pp at May 13, 20:00 UTC (to 24¢).
Show top 8 of 57 hourly moves
- May 14, 12:00 UTC · -18.7pp → 28¢
- May 14, 11:00 UTC · -22.2pp → 26¢
- May 14, 05:00 UTC · -19.9pp → 28¢
- May 13, 20:00 UTC · -25.8pp → 24¢
- May 13, 14:00 UTC · -25.7pp → 24¢
- May 12, 19:00 UTC · -22.3pp → 26¢
- May 12, 06:00 UTC · -20.5pp → 27¢
- May 11, 15:00 UTC · -21.4pp → 27¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Margot Robbie and/or Tom Ackerley announce their intention to divorce by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by the specified date of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market. The resolution source will be statements from Margot Robbie and/or Tom Ackerley, and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
divorceReason
Question text contains "divorce" — matched the Culture keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Margot Robbie divorce by June 30?"?
As of Fri, 15 May 2026 23:37:27 GMT, YES is priced at 12% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.2pp in the last 24 hours, -0.1pp in the last hour, and -19.7pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 30, 2026 (2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $672.85. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $419.96. Spread between best bid and best ask: 22.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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