Impressive-Credenza
0xa4bd8f49695cf5d55924aca4cc2694952874e8a2
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$169.66
Total PnL
$-2.1K
Realised
$800.76
Win rate
98%
176 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will BNB reach $1000 by December 31, 2026?
83 shares @ 57.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$74.78
$27.42
- NO
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?
60 shares @ 43.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$59.85
$33.80
- YES
Base FDV above $6B one day after launch?
60 shares @ 41.5¢·now 35.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$21.30
$-3.60
- YES
Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch?
60 shares @ 51.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$8.70
$-21.90
- YES
Will Bruno Mars be the top artist for 2026?
60 shares @ 6.0¢·now 5.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.21
$-0.39
- YES
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
60 shares @ 8.0¢·now 3.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.80
$-3.02
- YES
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
30 shares @ 13.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$0.01
$-4.04
- UP
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET
2455 shares @ 34.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-854.50
- YES
Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win the Bangladesh parliamentary election by between 3% and 6%?
145 shares @ 69.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 12, 2026$0.00
$-100.44
- YES
Will Aaron Judge win MVP at the 2026 World Baseball Classic?
90 shares @ 10.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-9.30
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?$10.00Jul 23, 16:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$2.97Jul 20, 14:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?$28.90Jul 13, 10:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?$15.89Jul 9, 03:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?$30.00Jul 4, 18:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$30.02Jul 3, 01:02 UTC
- REDEEMWeed rescheduled by June 30?$29.00Jul 2, 05:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) settle at $77-$84 in June?$30.00Jul 1, 08:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June?$3.68Jul 1, 08:22 UTC
- REDEEMRussian strike on Poland by June 30?$29.10Jul 1, 08:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Freddie Mac’s market cap be $300B or greater at market close on IPO day?$4.94Jul 1, 07:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Freddie Mac’s market cap be less than $150B at market close on IPO day?$6.99Jul 1, 07:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$30.00Jul 1, 06:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lord Peter Mandelson Testify to Congress about Epstein?$24.00Jul 1, 06:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June?$24.85Jun 30, 22:51 UTC
- REDEEMCap FDV above $100M one day after launch?$29.00Jun 27, 22:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$30.00Jun 25, 00:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$1.00Jun 24, 11:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Julie Won be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?$30.00Jun 24, 05:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Julia Salazar be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?$8.35Jun 24, 05:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
78/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
98% win rate over 176 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
176 closed markets, 98% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 11, 00:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 16:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 176 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.