OtherExpires Dec 31, 2025

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?

Probability

87¢

-0.5pp

24h

+11.5pp

24h Vol

$404.3K

Liquidity

$273.4K

Probability (last 7 days)

+26.5pp 7d

Apr 17, 2026, 20:00Apr 24, 2026, 19:51

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Without an Anthropic API key we show a heuristic summary derived from the market metrics.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice

19:52Signal
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
LOW
19:51Price
Probability up 17.0pp
to 87¢
MEDIUM
18:00Price
Probability up 18.0pp
to 89¢
MEDIUM
17:00Price
Probability up 17.5pp
to 89¢
MEDIUM
16:00Price
Probability up 19.0pp
to 89¢
MEDIUM
14:00Price
Probability up 15.0pp
to 86¢
MEDIUM
13:00Price
Probability up 15.0pp
to 86¢
MEDIUM
12:00Price
Probability up 14.5pp
to 85¢
MEDIUM
11:00Price
Probability up 15.0pp
to 85¢
MEDIUM
10:00Price
Probability up 14.5pp
to 85¢
MEDIUM
08:00Price
Probability up 13.0pp
to 83¢
MEDIUM
06:00Price
Probability up 15.5pp
to 84¢
MEDIUM
05:00Price
Probability up 13.5pp
to 82¢
MEDIUM
03:00Price
Probability up 17.0pp
to 79¢
MEDIUM
02:00Price
Probability up 18.5pp
to 79¢
MEDIUM
00:00Price
Probability up 18.0pp
to 79¢
MEDIUM
23:00Price
Probability up 19.0pp
to 79¢
MEDIUM
21:00Price
Probability up 17.5pp
to 79¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 13.0pp
to 74¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 10.5pp
to 71¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 13.5pp
to 74¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 14.5pp
to 76¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 18.5pp
to 80¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 17.0pp
to 79¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 17.5pp
to 80¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 16.0pp
to 78¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 16.0pp
to 78¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 15.5pp
to 77¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 13.5pp
to 76¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 15.0pp
to 77¢
MEDIUM

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

BUYUP
Popular-Insurrection$13.51@ 33¢
4m ago
BUYDOWN
Dimpled-Semiconductor$2.02@ 68¢
4m ago
BUYUP
Tight-Honey$1.79@ 37¢
4m ago
BUYUP
Twin-Driving-Shower$11.33@ 33¢
4m ago
BUYHAMISH STEWART
Happy-Go-Lucky-Min$19.57@ 82¢
4m ago
BUYDOWN
Cloudy-Exclamation$33.88@ 68¢
4m ago
BUYUP
Happy-Go-Lucky-Factory$1.26@ 33¢
4m ago
SELLOVER
Gray-Habitat$1.73@ 100¢
4m ago
BUYDOWN
Late-Grammar$2.77@ 55¢
4m ago
SELLNO
Shady-Squash$30.00@ 98¢
4m ago
BUYDOWN
Knowledgeable-Price$4.19@ 68¢
4m ago
BUYDOWN
Hidden-Plant$4.85@ 58¢
4m ago

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same eventMegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?

Category · Other

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of MegaETH's token is greater than $1,000,000,000 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 24 hours after launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If MegaETH doesn't launch a token by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk

End date: Dec 31, 2025
Resolution source
UMA status: n/a
Market type: Binary

No primary resolution source listed — read the market rules.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).

Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket