OtherExpires Jul 1, 2026

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?

Probability

7¢

1h

+0.1pp

24h

+0.1pp

24h Vol

$27.1K

Liquidity

$47.8K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.7pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 18:00Apr 25, 2026, 17:50
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 1594h with open resolution ambiguity.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 1594.2h

    LOW
  • 17:50Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 1594h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

-0.1pp over the last 24h, now 7¢.

Biggest hourly move: -4.7pp at 11:00 (to 7¢).

Show all 10 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 17:00 · -4.3pp → 7¢
  • 15:00 · -3.8pp → 8¢
  • 14:00 · -4.5pp → 7¢
  • 12:00 · -4.4pp → 7¢
  • 11:00 · -4.7pp → 7¢
  • 09:00 · -4.4pp → 7¢
  • 08:00 · -4.4pp → 7¢
  • 06:00 · -4.2pp → 7¢
  • 05:00 · -3.9pp → 7¢
  • 03:00 · -3.5pp → 7¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

1
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

13
Same eventMegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
Category · Other

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of MegaETH's token is greater than $3,000,000,000 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 24 hours after launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If MegaETH doesn't launch a token by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Jul 1, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not stated explicitly — read the full market rules below.
Market type
Binary
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket