Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?

1. 1

   Down 2pp over 24h

   Now 4¢; +0.1pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 1570h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $22.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between December 5, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.