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CryptoExpires Apr 28, 2026

MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 21-27?

Probability

94¢

1h

-0.5pp

24h

-1.5pp

24h Vol

$33.9K

Liquidity

$15.8K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 20, 2026, 05:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:16
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 5 factors
  1. 1

    Down 1pp over 24h

    Now 94¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Heavy volume on this book — 2.2× turnover

    $33.9k traded against $15.8k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  3. 3

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 63h with open resolution ambiguity.

  4. 4

    Thin liquidity

    Only $15.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

  5. 5

    Expiry in 63h

    Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 63 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 62.7h

    HIGH
  • 13:17Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 63h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 04:00Price

    Probability down -3.7pp

    to 93¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability down -3.3pp

    to 92¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 92¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 7.3pp

    to 95¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 8.8pp

    to 96¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability up 9.2pp

    to 96¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability up 8.9pp

    to 96¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability up 8.6pp

    to 96¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.3pp

    to 96¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.3pp

    to 96¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 9.8pp

    to 96¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.8pp

    to 96¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.5pp

    to 96¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.5pp

    to 96¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.5pp

    to 96¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.5pp

    to 96¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 9.0pp

    to 96¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 9.0pp

    to 96¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.8pp

    to 96¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 45.6pp

    to 96¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy announces a purchase of more Bitcoin than the number specified in the title between the dates in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last date). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on announcements made within the market's designated time frame regardless of when the actual purchases were made. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor. For reference, MicroStrategy's reported BTC holdings can be tracked at: https://www.strategy.com/purchases

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Apr 28, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
https://www.strategy.com/purchases
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires Apr 28, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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