MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 21-27?
Probability
94¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
-1.5pp
24h Vol
$33.9K
Liquidity
$15.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 5 factors- 1
Down 1pp over 24h
Now 94¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Heavy volume on this book — 2.2× turnover
$33.9k traded against $15.8k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.
- 3
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 63h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 4
Thin liquidity
Only $15.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
- 5
Expiry in 63h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 63 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 62.7h
- 13:17SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 63h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 04:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.7pp
to 93¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.3pp
to 92¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 92¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.3pp
to 95¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.8pp
to 96¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.2pp
to 96¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.9pp
to 96¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.6pp
to 96¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.3pp
to 96¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.3pp
to 96¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.8pp
to 96¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.8pp
to 96¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 96¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 96¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 96¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 96¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 96¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 96¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.8pp
to 96¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 45.6pp
to 96¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy announces a purchase of more Bitcoin than the number specified in the title between the dates in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last date). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on announcements made within the market's designated time frame regardless of when the actual purchases were made. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor. For reference, MicroStrategy's reported BTC holdings can be tracked at: https://www.strategy.com/purchases
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://www.strategy.com/purchases
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 28, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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