CryptoExpires May 19, 2026
Creator

MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18?

Probability

95¢

1h

-1.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$18.5K

Liquidity

$7.5K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 19, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
announcements made within the market's designated time frame regardless of when the actual purchases were made
Link
strategy.com
Type
Ambiguous wording
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
May 11, 2026, 06:00May 11, 2026, 23:06
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-11T23-06Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 2.5× turnover

    $18.5k traded against $7.5k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

  • 03
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $7.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 172.9h

    LOW
  • 23:06Signal

    Resolution risk

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 95¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Crypto

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy announces a purchase of more Bitcoin than the number specified in the title between the dates in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last date). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on announcements made within the market's designated time frame regardless of when the actual purchases were made. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor. For reference, MicroStrategy's reported BTC holdings can be tracked at: https://www.strategy.com/purchases

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Crypto

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

btc

Reason

Question text contains "btc" — matched the Crypto keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18?"?

As of Mon, 11 May 2026 23:06:58 GMT, YES is priced at 95% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, -1.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 19, 2026 (2026-05-19T04:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.strategy.com/purchases.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.strategy.com/purchases. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$18.5K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $18.5K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $7.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket