MLB: 4-homer game in 2026?
Probability
56¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+33.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$349.70
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial MLB dataTypeOfficial sports resultConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (85.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 33pp over 24h
Now 56¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 85.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial MLB dataTypeOfficial sports resultConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (85.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 3587.3h
- 12:42SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+33.0pp over the last 24h, now 56¢.
Biggest hourly move: +31.0pp at 12:00 (to 56¢).
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any player hits four or more home runs in a single game during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Alerts
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