Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Probability
46¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-7.5pp
24h Vol
$13.21
Liquidity
$1.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 8pp over 24h
Now 46¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 51¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 178.8h
Price movement
-4.0pp over the last 24h, now 50¢.
Biggest hourly move: +10.5pp at 2d ago (to 56¢).
Show top 8 of 39 hourly moves
- 23:00 · +9.5pp → 55¢
- 17:00 · +9.5pp → 55¢
- 1d ago · +10.5pp → 56¢
- 2d ago · +9.5pp → 55¢
- 2d ago · +10.0pp → 56¢
- 2d ago · +10.0pp → 55¢
- 2d ago · +10.5pp → 56¢
- 2d ago · +10.0pp → 55¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
In the upcoming MLB game between the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays, scheduled for April 28 at 7:07 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one run is scored in the 1st inning by either the Boston Red Sox or Toronto Blue Jays. This market will resolve to "No" if no runs are scored in the 1st inning by either team. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 5, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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