New York Yankees vs. New York Mets
Probability
57¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-4.5pp
24h Vol
$3.7K
Liquidity
$69.1K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 22, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Price move
Down 5pp over 24h
Now 57¢; flat in the last hour.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 22, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 22, 23:15 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 187.4h
Price movement
-4.5pp over the last 24h, now 57¢.
Biggest hourly move: +20.0pp at 12:00 (to 62¢).
Show top 8 of 24 hourly moves
- 12:00 · +20.0pp → 62¢
- 11:00 · +6.5pp → 63¢
- 05:00 · +6.5pp → 63¢
- May 12, 09:00 UTC · +6.0pp → 56¢
- May 12, 07:00 UTC · +6.0pp → 56¢
- May 12, 06:00 UTC · +6.0pp → 56¢
- May 12, 05:00 UTC · +6.0pp → 56¢
- May 12, 04:00 UTC · +6.0pp → 56¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 46¢-6.5
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. New York Mets
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 11¢0.0
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 17¢0.0
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)
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- 25¢0.0
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
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Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 25¢0.0
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 52¢0.0
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 56¢0.0
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5
Sports · Vol $593.67
- 32¢-7.0
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Sports · Vol $1.1M
- 90¢+39.0
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- 9¢0.0
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $484.1K
- 17¢+0.1
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
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Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?
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Market Description
In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Yankees and New York Mets, scheduled for May 15 at 7:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Yankees" if the New York Yankees win the game. This market will resolve to "New York Mets" if the New York Mets win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
mlb Reason
MLB — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "New York Yankees vs. New York Mets"?
As of Fri, 15 May 2026 03:53:44 GMT, YES is priced at 57% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -4.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 22, 2026 (2026-05-22T23:15:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.mlb.com/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$3.7K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $3.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $69.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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