Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox
Probability
54¢
1h
+1.5pp
24h
+11.5pp
24h Vol
$224.39
Liquidity
$27.4K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Methodology explanation
Review-only opportunity
No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.
Why this market is in review
signalMomentum / follow-through
70% source confidence on this opportunity row.
Paper-only action
paper-onlyReview-only opportunity
read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.
Risk / veto readback
reviewPaper governor not run here
This card explains the opportunity row only; a paper scan is still required before a paper intent or veto exists.
Source evidence
source4 mapped surfaces
283/283 sources runtime-backed; all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false.
Signals
- Momentum / follow-throughclear
70% source confidence on this opportunity row.
Veto / blockers
- Paper governor not run heresource
This card explains the opportunity row only; a paper scan is still required before a paper intent or veto exists.
Costs / sizing
- Research score
- Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
- Capacity
- Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
- Liquidity
- Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false; this card cites mapped surfaces only.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 12pp over 24h
Now 54¢; +1.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Momentum observation firing
Probability moved up 11.5pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability drops back below 49¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Watch the next 6–24 hours: momentum observations historically extend on this kind of setup but pay spread on entry. Compare to /backtest for the rule's historical performance.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: MLB.com
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Aug 16, 17:35 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 169.4h
- 16:13SignalHIGH
Momentum up
Probability moved up 11.5pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
Price movement
+11.5pp over the last 24h, now 54¢.
Biggest hourly move: -6.5pp at Aug 8, 16:00 UTC (to 43¢).
Show top 8 of 18 hourly moves
- 13:00 · +5.5pp → 54¢
- 09:00 · +4.5pp → 54¢
- 08:00 · +5.5pp → 54¢
- 05:00 · +5.5pp → 55¢
- Aug 8, 16:00 UTC · -6.5pp → 43¢
- Aug 8, 12:00 UTC · -5.0pp → 44¢
- Aug 8, 10:00 UTC · -5.0pp → 46¢
- Aug 8, 00:00 UTC · -6.0pp → 46¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 33¢+2.0
Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox
Sports · Vol $153.4K
- 71¢0.0
Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 59¢0.0
Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5
Sports · Vol $30.00
- 82¢0.0
Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 48¢0.0
Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5
Sports · Vol $211.22
- 36¢0.0
Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5
Sports · Vol $342.05
- 8¢0.0
Will the game go to extra innings?: Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 42¢0.0
Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5
Sports · Vol $14.6K
- 100¢0.0
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins
Sports · Vol $444.9K
- 0¢0.0
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
Sports · Vol $424.4K
- 100¢0.0
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Liquid (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins
Sports · Vol $418.4K
- 100¢+43.5
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-08-09?
Sports · Vol $382.6K
- 0¢-14.4
LoL: Team Heretics vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner
Sports · Vol $309.5K
- 51¢0.0
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5
Sports · Vol $286.4K
Market Description
In the upcoming MLB game between the Athletics and Boston Red Sox, scheduled for August 9 at 1:35 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one run is scored in the 1st inning by either the Athletics or Boston Red Sox. This market will resolve to "No" if no runs are scored in the 1st inning by either team. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
mlb Reason
MLB — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox"?
As of Sun, 09 Aug 2026 16:13:27 GMT, YES is priced at 54% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +11.5pp in the last 24 hours, +1.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Aug 16, 2026 (2026-08-16T17:35:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.mlb.com/scores.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/scores. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$224.39 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $224.39. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $27.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.