Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
Probability
46¢
1h
-8.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$517.00
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 9, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (47.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 47.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 9, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (47.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 214.5h
- 21:40SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 46¢.
Biggest hourly move: +8.0pp at 06:00 (to 55¢).
Show top 8 of 9 hourly moves
- 21:00 · +6.5pp → 53¢
- 19:00 · +4.5pp → 51¢
- 07:00 · +8.0pp → 55¢
- 06:00 · +8.0pp → 55¢
- 03:00 · +6.0pp → 53¢
- 2d ago · -5.0pp → 46¢
- 2d ago · -5.0pp → 46¢
- 2d ago · -5.0pp → 46¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
In the upcoming MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins, scheduled for May 2 at 4:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one run is scored in the 1st inning by either the Philadelphia Phillies or Miami Marlins. This market will resolve to "No" if no runs are scored in the 1st inning by either team. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Alerts
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Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.