Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Probability
67¢
1h
+4.5pp
24h
+5.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$318.23
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 6pp over 24h
Now 67¢; +4.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 192h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 23.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 192.3h
- 19:47SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 192h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+5.5pp over the last 24h, now 67¢.
Biggest hourly move: +14.5pp at 1d ago (to 66¢).
Show all 27 hour-by-hour ticks
- 19:00 · +11.5pp → 63¢
- 17:00 · +7.5pp → 59¢
- 15:00 · +8.0pp → 59¢
- 14:00 · +10.5pp → 62¢
- 12:00 · +7.5pp → 59¢
- 11:00 · +10.5pp → 62¢
- 09:00 · +10.0pp → 61¢
- 08:00 · +10.5pp → 62¢
- 06:00 · +10.5pp → 62¢
- 05:00 · +10.5pp → 62¢
- 03:00 · +10.5pp → 62¢
- 02:00 · +10.5pp → 62¢
- 00:00 · +9.5pp → 61¢
- 23:00 · +9.5pp → 61¢
- 21:00 · +10.5pp → 62¢
- 20:00 · +10.0pp → 61¢
- 1d ago · +10.0pp → 61¢
- 1d ago · +10.0pp → 61¢
- 1d ago · +7.0pp → 58¢
- 1d ago · +10.5pp → 62¢
- 1d ago · +14.5pp → 66¢
- 1d ago · +14.5pp → 66¢
- 1d ago · +14.0pp → 65¢
- 2d ago · +12.5pp → 64¢
- 2d ago · +6.5pp → 57¢
- 2d ago · +5.0pp → 56¢
- 2d ago · +8.5pp → 60¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
In the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks, scheduled for April 26 at 4:05 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one run is scored in the 1st inning by either the San Diego Padres or Arizona Diamondbacks. This market will resolve to "No" if no runs are scored in the 1st inning by either team. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 3, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- MLB.comOfficial sports resultmlb.com
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (23.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.