SportsExpires May 22, 2026
Creator

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers

Probability

55¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-1.0pp

24h Vol

$15.9K

Liquidity

$82.7K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 22, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
mlb.com
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
55¢
May 9, 2026, 19:00 UTCMay 15, 2026, 10:18 UTC
updated 10:18:44 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-15T10-18Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 1pp over 24h

    Now 55¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Light volume — move on a thin book

    Only $15.9k traded against $82.7k of visible liquidity (0.19× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • May 22, 22:45 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 180.4h

    LOW

Price movement

-1.0pp over the last 24h, now 55¢.

Biggest hourly move: +22.5pp at May 14, 10:00 UTC (to 56¢).

Show top 8 of 37 hourly moves
  • 17:00 · +11.5pp → 56¢
  • 15:00 · +11.5pp → 56¢
  • 13:00 · +12.0pp → 56¢
  • 12:00 · +22.0pp → 56¢
  • May 14, 10:00 UTC · +22.5pp → 56¢
  • May 14, 08:00 UTC · +11.5pp → 56¢
  • May 14, 07:00 UTC · +11.5pp → 56¢
  • May 14, 05:00 UTC · +13.5pp → 57¢
updated 10:18:44 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 10:18:44 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventToronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers
Category · Sports

Market Description

In the upcoming MLB game between the Toronto Blue Jays and Detroit Tigers, scheduled for May 15 at 6:45PM ET: This market will resolve to "Toronto Blue Jays" if the Toronto Blue Jays win the game. This market will resolve to "Detroit Tigers" if the Detroit Tigers win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

mlb

Reason

MLB — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers"?

As of Fri, 15 May 2026 10:18:44 GMT, YES is priced at 55% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -1.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 22, 2026 (2026-05-22T22:45:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.mlb.com/.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$15.9K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $16.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $82.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket