Mobile Legends Bang Bang: AC Esports vs Selangor Red Giants - Game 2 Winner
Probability
24¢
1h
-8.0pp
24h
+4.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$922.66
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 9, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 9, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (10.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 5pp over 24h
Now 24¢; -8.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 21h. Spread is extremely wide.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 10.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 21 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 9, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 9, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (10.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 16:15ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 21.2h
- 19:02SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 21h. Spread is extremely wide.
Price movement
+4.5pp over the last 24h, now 24¢.
Biggest hourly move: -26.5pp at 14:00 (to 24¢).
Show 6 hourly moves
- 19:02 · +4.5pp → 24¢
- 18:00 · +10.5pp → 30¢
- 17:00 · +4.0pp → 24¢
- 16:00 · -26.5pp → 24¢
- 15:00 · -26.5pp → 24¢
- 14:00 · -26.5pp → 24¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
10- 16¢-1.0
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: AC Esports vs Selangor Red Giants (BO3) - MPL Malaysia Regular Season
Sports · Vol $50.97
- 24¢+4.5
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: AC Esports vs Selangor Red Giants - Game 1 Winner
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 38¢+0.5
Games Total: O/U 2.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 56¢+8.0
Game Handicap: SRG (-1.5) vs AC Esports (+1.5)
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 0¢-50.4
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders
Sports · Vol $1.5M
- 48¢-3.0
Knicks vs. 76ers
Sports · Vol $1.5M
- 19¢+1.0
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)
Sports · Vol $1.4M
- 100¢+61.5
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic
Sports · Vol $1.2M
- 38¢+6.0
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-05-08?
Sports · Vol $848.9K
- 66¢-1.0
Spurs vs. Timberwolves
Sports · Vol $759.3K
Market Description
This market refers to the Mobile Legends Bang Bang match between AC Esports and Selangor Red Giants in the MPL Malaysia Regular Season, initially scheduled for May 9 at 8:15AM ET. This market will resolve to "AC Esports" if AC Esports win Game 2 against Selangor Red Giants. This market will resolve to "Selangor Red Giants" if Selangor Red Giants win Game 2 against AC Esports. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://liquipedia.net/mobilelegends/Main_Page. However, if https://liquipedia.net/mobilelegends/Main_Page has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
esportsReason
Question text contains "esports" — matched the Sports keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Mobile Legends Bang Bang: AC Esports vs Selangor Red Giants - Game 2 Winner"?
As of Fri, 08 May 2026 19:02:57 GMT, YES is priced at 24% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +4.5pp in the last 24 hours, -8.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 9, 2026 (2026-05-09T16:15:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://liquipedia.net/mobilelegends/Main_Page.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://liquipedia.net/mobilelegends/Main_Page. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $0.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $922.66. Spread between best bid and best ask: 10.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.
