Mobile Legends Bang Bang: RRQ Hoshi vs Geek Fam ID (BO3) - MPL Indonesia Regular Season
Probability
35¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
+1.5pp
24h Vol
$69.02
Liquidity
$2.3K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Resolves in 45h.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 10, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 10, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (12.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 35¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 45h. Spread is extremely wide.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 12.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 45 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 10, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 10, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (12.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 45.4h
- 15:49SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 45h. Spread is extremely wide.
Price movement
+1.5pp over the last 24h, now 35¢.
Biggest hourly move: -21.5pp at 20:00 (to 34¢).
Show top 8 of 17 hourly moves
- 05:00 · -10.0pp → 34¢
- 02:00 · -12.0pp → 34¢
- 23:00 · -21.0pp → 34¢
- 21:00 · -21.5pp → 34¢
- 20:00 · -21.5pp → 34¢
- 19:00 · -21.0pp → 34¢
- 17:00 · -15.5pp → 35¢
- 16:00 · -16.5pp → 34¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
5Market Description
This market refers to the Mobile Legends Bang Bang match between RRQ Hoshi and Geek Fam ID in the MPL Indonesia Regular Season, initially scheduled for May 10 at 3:15AM ET. This market will resolve to "RRQ Hoshi" if RRQ Hoshi win the match against Geek Fam ID. This market will resolve to "Geek Fam ID" if Geek Fam ID win the match against RRQ Hoshi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://liquipedia.net/mobilelegends/Main_Page. However, if https://liquipedia.net/mobilelegends/Main_Page has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Mobile Legends Bang Bang: RRQ Hoshi vs Geek Fam ID (BO3) - MPL Indonesia Regular Season"?
As of Fri, 08 May 2026 15:49:47 GMT, YES is priced at 35% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +1.5pp in the last 24 hours, -0.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 10, 2026 (2026-05-10T13:15:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://liquipedia.net/mobilelegends/Main_Page.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://liquipedia.net/mobilelegends/Main_Page. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$69.02 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $626.06. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 12.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
