Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $435 end of April?
Probability
47¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+8.6pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$148.37
Probability (last 7 days)
+10.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 9pp over 24h
Now 47¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 119h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 40.7¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 119.1h
- 20:53SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 119h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+8.6pp over the last 24h, now 47¢.
Biggest hourly move: +24.9pp at 01:00 (to 63¢).
Show all 20 hour-by-hour ticks
- 20:00 · +3.0pp → 47¢
- 08:00 · -6.7pp → 42¢
- 06:00 · -4.2pp → 42¢
- 05:00 · -3.9pp → 42¢
- 03:00 · -3.9pp → 41¢
- 01:00 · +24.9pp → 63¢
- 1d ago · -20.4pp → 41¢
- 1d ago · -4.1pp → 33¢
- 1d ago · -5.7pp → 32¢
- 1d ago · -4.4pp → 33¢
- 1d ago · -5.2pp → 32¢
- 2d ago · +8.5pp → 37¢
- 2d ago · +6.0pp → 35¢
- 2d ago · +6.6pp → 35¢
- 2d ago · +4.9pp → 34¢
- 2d ago · +3.1pp → 34¢
- 2d ago · -6.9pp → 28¢
- 2d ago · -5.8pp → 30¢
- 2d ago · +4.1pp → 40¢
- 2d ago · +6.0pp → 42¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarysplit-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo FinanceTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (40.7¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.