Nexus FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Probability
63¢
1h
+3.0pp
24h
+10.0pp
24h Vol
$5.88
Liquidity
$1.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
+30.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 10pp over 24h
Now 63¢; +3.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 14768h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 16.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 14768.1h
- 20:51SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 14768h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+7.5pp over the last 24h, now 62¢.
Biggest hourly move: +34.0pp at 15:00 (to 64¢).
Show all 31 hour-by-hour ticks
- 20:00 · +30.5pp → 61¢
- 19:00 · +28.5pp → 59¢
- 17:00 · +26.0pp → 56¢
- 16:00 · +31.5pp → 62¢
- 15:00 · +34.0pp → 64¢
- 13:00 · +33.0pp → 62¢
- 12:00 · +33.5pp → 62¢
- 10:00 · +33.0pp → 63¢
- 09:00 · +33.0pp → 62¢
- 08:00 · +33.5pp → 61¢
- 06:00 · +31.5pp → 61¢
- 05:00 · +31.0pp → 59¢
- 03:00 · +29.5pp → 59¢
- 02:00 · +23.0pp → 53¢
- 00:00 · +31.0pp → 60¢
- 22:00 · +25.0pp → 55¢
- 1d ago · +30.0pp → 59¢
- 1d ago · +21.5pp → 50¢
- 1d ago · +16.0pp → 46¢
- 1d ago · +20.5pp → 49¢
- 1d ago · +17.0pp → 45¢
- 1d ago · +20.0pp → 49¢
- 1d ago · +14.5pp → 44¢
- 1d ago · +23.0pp → 52¢
- 1d ago · +27.5pp → 56¢
- 2d ago · +19.0pp → 47¢
- 2d ago · +18.5pp → 48¢
- 2d ago · +17.0pp → 47¢
- 2d ago · +25.5pp → 55¢
- 2d ago · +23.0pp → 52¢
- 4d ago · -3.5pp → 28¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Nexus's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Nexus (https://x.com/NexusLabs) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2028
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryusing the total token supply multiplied by the token priceLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (16.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.