Nexus FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Probability
48¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
-3.0pp
24h Vol
$19.30
Liquidity
$363.42
Probability (last 7 days)
+38.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 3pp over 24h
Now 48¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 14774h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 20.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 14773.6h
- 15:26SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 14774h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 38.5pp
to 49¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 40.0pp
to 50¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 36.0pp
to 46¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 39.5pp
to 50¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 36.0pp
to 47¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 36.5pp
to 47¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 37.5pp
to 48¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 32.0pp
to 42¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 35.5pp
to 46¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 34.0pp
to 43¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 36.5pp
to 45¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 31.5pp
to 41¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 38.0pp
to 46¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 35.5pp
to 45¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 36.5pp
to 45¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 32.5pp
to 42¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 43.0pp
to 52¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 36.0pp
to 45¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 41.0pp
to 50¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 35.0pp
to 44¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 33.5pp
to 42¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 50.5pp
to 60¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 47.0pp
to 56¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 59.0pp
to 68¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 30.0pp
to 40¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
12- 21¢+16.6pp
Nexus FDV above $800M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $137.99
- 93¢-0.5pp
Nexus FDV above $20M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 86¢+0.5pp
Nexus FDV above $50M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $1.14
- 61¢+13.5pp
Nexus FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $35.80
- 37¢+7.0pp
Nexus FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $190.35
- 39¢-20.0pp
Nexus FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $15.00
- 79¢+20.0pp
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $3.6M
- 2¢-0.4pp
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Other · Vol $1.4M
- 100¢+59.0pp
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner
Other · Vol $1.4M
- 44¢-14.0pp
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $1.3M
- 0¢-35.4pp
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
Other · Vol $1.1M
- 95¢+30.0pp
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $982.4K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Nexus's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Nexus (https://x.com/NexusLabs) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2028
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (20.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).