Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $220 end of April?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.1pp
24h Vol
$0.53
Liquidity
$4.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Thin liquidity
Only $4.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 122.8h
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.2pp
to 0¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.9pp
to 0¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 0¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 0¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.2pp
to 0¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 0¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NFLX/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo FinanceAmbiguous wordingfinance.yahoo.com
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.