Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)
Probability
0¢
1h
-5.5pp
24h
-29.9pp
24h Vol
$7.1K
Liquidity
$327.6K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 11, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primarybased on the final score including any overtime periods and shootoutsLinkTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 11, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 01Price move
Down 30pp over 24h
Now 0¢; -5.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Volume pressure
Light volume — move on a thin book
Only $7.1k traded against $327.6k of visible liquidity (0.02× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.
- 03Active signal
Momentum observation firing
Probability moved down 29.9pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 04Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 11, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primarybased on the final score including any overtime periods and shootoutsLinkTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 11, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 04:49SignalHIGH
Momentum down
Probability moved down 29.9pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 04:49SignalHIGH
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 01:30Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Expiry passed 3h ago; awaiting UMA confirmation
Price movement
-29.9pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
In the NHL game, scheduled for May 10 at 9:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Golden Knights" if the Golden Knights win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Ducks". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
nhl Reason
NHL — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)"?
As of Mon, 11 May 2026 04:49:14 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -29.9pp in the last 24 hours, -5.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 11, 2026 (2026-05-11T01:30:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.nhl.com/scores.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.nhl.com/scores. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$7.1K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $7.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $327.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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