SportsExpires Jul 1, 2026

NHL: Stanley Cup Winner USA or Canada?

Probability

72¢

1h

+2.5pp

24h

+3.5pp

24h Vol

$5.00

Liquidity

$755.81

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 20, 2026, 20:00Apr 25, 2026, 19:37
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Up 4pp over 24h

    Now 72¢; +2.5pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 1588h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 29.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 1588.4h

    LOW
  • 19:37Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 1588h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

+6.0pp over the last 24h, now 74¢.

Biggest hourly move: +20.0pp at 2d ago (to 68¢).

Show all 15 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 19:37 · +5.5pp → 74¢
  • 17:00 · +3.0pp → 72¢
  • 14:00 · +5.0pp → 74¢
  • 08:00 · +7.0pp → 76¢
  • 06:00 · +7.0pp → 76¢
  • 1d ago · -14.5pp → 68¢
  • 1d ago · -14.5pp → 68¢
  • 1d ago · -14.5pp → 68¢
  • 1d ago · -14.5pp → 68¢
  • 2d ago · -14.5pp → 68¢
  • 2d ago · -14.5pp → 68¢
  • 2d ago · -14.5pp → 68¢
  • 2d ago · -14.5pp → 68¢
  • 2d ago · -4.5pp → 68¢
  • 2d ago · +20.0pp → 68¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to “USA” if a team based in the United States of America wins the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals. This market will resolve to “Canada” if a team based in Canada wins the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals. If the 2026 NHL Playoffs are cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the NHL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jul 1, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (29.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.