NHL: Stanley Cup Winner USA or Canada?
Probability
72¢
1h
+2.5pp
24h
+3.5pp
24h Vol
$5.00
Liquidity
$755.81
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 4pp over 24h
Now 72¢; +2.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1588h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 29.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1588.4h
- 19:37SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 1588h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+6.0pp over the last 24h, now 74¢.
Biggest hourly move: +20.0pp at 2d ago (to 68¢).
Show all 15 hour-by-hour ticks
- 19:37 · +5.5pp → 74¢
- 17:00 · +3.0pp → 72¢
- 14:00 · +5.0pp → 74¢
- 08:00 · +7.0pp → 76¢
- 06:00 · +7.0pp → 76¢
- 1d ago · -14.5pp → 68¢
- 1d ago · -14.5pp → 68¢
- 1d ago · -14.5pp → 68¢
- 1d ago · -14.5pp → 68¢
- 2d ago · -14.5pp → 68¢
- 2d ago · -14.5pp → 68¢
- 2d ago · -14.5pp → 68¢
- 2d ago · -14.5pp → 68¢
- 2d ago · -4.5pp → 68¢
- 2d ago · +20.0pp → 68¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “USA” if a team based in the United States of America wins the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals. This market will resolve to “Canada” if a team based in Canada wins the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals. If the 2026 NHL Playoffs are cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the NHL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (29.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.