Deficient-Bow
0xd2a4aa24f136f4217d640c0b862a6ed1766c3ee9
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
29
Open notional
$20.2K
Total PnL
$1.3K
Realised
$4.89
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- NO
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
4300 shares @ 84.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.3K
$648.13
- NO
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
3800 shares @ 85.7¢·now 86.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$3.3K
$31.51
- YES
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
3000 shares @ 81.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$3.0K
$567.02
- YES
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
2887 shares @ 73.1¢·now 61.0¢·exp Oct 5, 2026$1.8K
$-349.23
- YES
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
1500 shares @ 74.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$1.5K
$390.40
- YES
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
1100 shares @ 68.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$1.1K
$344.00
- YES
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
1428 shares @ 63.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$892.41
$-7.46
- YES
Will Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft?
629 shares @ 85.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$629.00
$91.34
- NO
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June?
558 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$558.03
$33.76
- YES
Will Zach Werenski win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy?
500 shares @ 90.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$499.99
$47.36
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.34Jul 29, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.34Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.34Jul 27, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.34Jul 26, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.34Jul 25, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.34Jul 24, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.34Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.34Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.33Jul 21, 20:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.33Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.33Jul 19, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.33Jul 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.34Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.34Jul 16, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.34Jul 15, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.34Jul 14, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.34Jul 13, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.34Jul 12, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.34Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.34Jul 10, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.