Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5
Probability
78¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+4.5pp
24h Vol
$2.88
Liquidity
$3.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
+25.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Up 5pp over 24h
Now 78¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 32h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 9.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Expiry in 32h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 32 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 32.2h
- 14:47SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 32h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.0pp
to 78¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 78¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 74¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 75¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 75¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 74¢
- 04:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 75¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 74¢
- 01:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 74¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 73¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.5pp
to 74¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 74¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.0pp
to 73¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.0pp
to 74¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.5pp
to 73¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.0pp
to 73¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.5pp
to 73¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.0pp
to 73¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.5pp
to 73¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 73¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 72¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.5pp
to 72¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 71¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 71¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.5pp
to 70¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 62¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for April 26 at 7:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Lightning and Canadiens combine to score 5 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 5, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://www.nhl.com/scores
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (9.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).