OtherExpires May 16, 2026

Spread: Aalesunds FK (-2.5)

Probability

1h

+0.8pp

24h

-13.9pp

24h Vol

$87.54

Liquidity

$149.22

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 20, 2026, 08:00Apr 25, 2026, 18:15
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Down 14pp over 24h

    Now 2¢; +0.8pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Thin liquidity

    Only $149 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 7¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 499.7h

    LOW

Price movement

-18.7pp over the last 24h, now 2¢.

Biggest hourly move: -43.0pp at 00:00 (to 21¢).

Show all 30 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 18:15 · -30.3pp → 2¢
  • 17:00 · -31.2pp → 1¢
  • 15:00 · -31.1pp → 1¢
  • 14:00 · -31.1pp → 1¢
  • 12:00 · -31.1pp → 1¢
  • 11:00 · -31.1pp → 1¢
  • 09:00 · -31.1pp → 1¢
  • 08:00 · -30.6pp → 1¢
  • 06:00 · -31.3pp → 1¢
  • 05:00 · -30.4pp → 2¢
  • 03:00 · -11.6pp → 20¢
  • 02:00 · -11.5pp → 21¢
  • 00:00 · -43.0pp → 21¢
  • 23:00 · -13.0pp → 21¢
  • 21:00 · -13.0pp → 21¢
  • 20:00 · -13.0pp → 21¢
  • 1d ago · -18.1pp → 15¢
  • 1d ago · -18.0pp → 16¢
  • 1d ago · -18.2pp → 15¢
  • 1d ago · -17.9pp → 16¢
  • 1d ago · -17.9pp → 16¢
  • 1d ago · -17.9pp → 16¢
  • 1d ago · -18.0pp → 16¢
  • 1d ago · -5.9pp → 28¢
  • 2d ago · -29.6pp → 3¢
  • 2d ago · -30.0pp → 4¢
  • 2d ago · -30.0pp → 4¢
  • 2d ago · -30.1pp → 3¢
  • 2d ago · -29.5pp → 3¢
  • 2d ago · -30.4pp → 4¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

In the upcoming Norway Eliteserien game, scheduled for May 16 at 10:00 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Aalesunds FK" if Aalesunds FK win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Rosenborg BK". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on eliteserien.no. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 16, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
official statisticsOfficial statistics
eliteserien.no
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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