Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
Probability
98¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
+4.4pp
24h Vol
$277.26
Liquidity
$985.34
Probability (last 7 days)
+49.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Up 4pp over 24h
Now 98¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $985 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 74.0h
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.2pp
to 98¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.4pp
to 98¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.4pp
to 98¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.8pp
to 97¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.8pp
to 97¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 40.3pp
to 94¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 40.3pp
to 94¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 43.9pp
to 94¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.5pp
to 96¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.4pp
to 94¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.6pp
to 94¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.4pp
to 94¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 94¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.2pp
to 94¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.5pp
to 94¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.9pp
to 93¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.5pp
to 94¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.8pp
to 94¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.5pp
to 94¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.2pp
to 96¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 37.4pp
to 97¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.8pp
to 97¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 29.2pp
to 96¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.1pp
to 93¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.2pp
to 93¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.1pp
to 93¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.8pp
to 94¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.7pp
to 91¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.8pp
to 90¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani (@NYCMayor), posts on X between April 21, 12:00 PM ET and April 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://x.com/NYCMayorAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).