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OtherExpires Jan 1, 2028

o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Probability

77¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+2.0pp

24h Vol

$192.40

Liquidity

$21.0K

Probability (last 7 days)

+3.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:11
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Up 2pp over 24h

    Now 77¢; flat in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 14776h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 6.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 14775.8h

    LOW
  • 13:11Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 14776h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 78¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 78¢

    MEDIUM
  • 04:00Price

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 78¢

    MEDIUM
  • 23:00Price

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 79¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 78¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 78¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 75¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 75¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 75¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 75¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 75¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 76¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 76¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 76¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 77¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of o1's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Jan 1, 2028
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
  • Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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