Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026?
Probability
47¢
1h
+6.5pp
24h
-9.5pp
24h Vol
$102.05
Liquidity
$923.77
Probability (last 7 days)
-12.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 10pp over 24h
Now 47¢; +6.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6006h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 14.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6006.1h
- 17:55SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 6006h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-9.5pp over the last 24h, now 47¢.
Biggest hourly move: +27.0pp at 2d ago (to 72¢).
Show all 37 hour-by-hour ticks
- 17:00 · -6.0pp → 41¢
- 15:00 · -8.5pp → 38¢
- 13:00 · -5.0pp → 42¢
- 11:00 · -8.0pp → 39¢
- 09:00 · -4.5pp → 40¢
- 08:00 · -5.0pp → 39¢
- 06:00 · -5.5pp → 39¢
- 03:00 · -3.0pp → 42¢
- 02:00 · -6.5pp → 38¢
- 00:00 · -5.0pp → 40¢
- 22:00 · +9.0pp → 53¢
- 21:00 · +9.0pp → 53¢
- 20:00 · +11.0pp → 55¢
- 18:00 · +12.5pp → 56¢
- 1d ago · +12.5pp → 56¢
- 1d ago · +11.0pp → 55¢
- 1d ago · +7.0pp → 51¢
- 1d ago · +7.0pp → 51¢
- 1d ago · +13.0pp → 57¢
- 1d ago · +13.0pp → 57¢
- 1d ago · +13.0pp → 57¢
- 1d ago · +19.0pp → 56¢
- 2d ago · +16.0pp → 54¢
- 2d ago · +15.0pp → 53¢
- 2d ago · +11.5pp → 51¢
- 2d ago · +9.5pp → 49¢
- 2d ago · +8.0pp → 47¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 43¢
- 2d ago · +27.0pp → 72¢
- 2d ago · +21.5pp → 66¢
- 2d ago · -4.0pp → 41¢
- 2d ago · -14.0pp → 45¢
- 2d ago · -15.0pp → 44¢
- 2d ago · -12.5pp → 47¢
- 2d ago · -12.5pp → 47¢
- 2d ago · -12.5pp → 47¢
- 2d ago · -12.5pp → 47¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pep Guardiola permanently ceases to be the manager of Manchester City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary absences (including but not limited: to medical leave, compassionate leave, suspension, or touchline bans) will not be considered. An announcement of Pep Guardiola’s resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Manchester City and/or Pep Guardiola. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (14.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.