BusinessExpires May 1, 2026

Pump.fun revenue above $25M in April?

Probability

70¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+38.0pp

24h Vol

$427.04

Liquidity

$990.25

Probability (last 7 days)

+13.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 19:00Apr 25, 2026, 17:12
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Up 38pp over 24h

    Now 70¢; flat in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 131h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 23.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 130.8h

    LOW
  • 17:12Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 131h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 17:00Price

    Probability up 36.0pp

    to 70¢

    MEDIUM
  • 15:00Price

    Probability up 35.5pp

    to 69¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability up 35.0pp

    to 69¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability up 34.5pp

    to 69¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability up 47.5pp

    to 81¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability up 28.0pp

    to 61¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability up 29.0pp

    to 61¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 27.5pp

    to 60¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 26.5pp

    to 60¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 27.5pp

    to 61¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 27.0pp

    to 60¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 27.0pp

    to 59¢

    MEDIUM
  • 22:00Price

    Probability up 20.0pp

    to 54¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability up 21.5pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 34¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 38¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.0pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 34¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 9.5pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 35¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 34¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -20.5pp

    to 34¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -21.5pp

    to 33¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -21.0pp

    to 34¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -22.5pp

    to 32¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -21.0pp

    to 34¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pump.fun’s revenue exceeds the amount specified in the title during the month specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is DefiLlama, specifically the “Revenue” chart set to “Monthly”: https://defillama.com/protocol/pump.fun?groupBy=monthly A monthly bar will be considered finalized once the next month’s bar is published. If the data is revised before the threshold is hit, the latest numbers will be used. If the data becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using other credible crypto data sources.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 1, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
defillama.comSource not classifiedextracted · low
defillama.com
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (23.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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