SportsExpires May 10, 2026
Creator

AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 4.5

Probability

14¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$1.4K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 10, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
official statistics
Type
Official statistics
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (7.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+2.0pp 7d
Apr 30, 2026, 04:00May 7, 2026, 03:54
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-07T03-54Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 02
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 7.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 86.8h

    LOW
  • 03:54Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 14¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

In the upcoming Serie A game between AC Milan and Atalanta BC, scheduled for May 10 at 2:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if AC Milan and Atalanta BC combine to score 5 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 5, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on legaseriea.it. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Sports hard marker

Matched term

ac milan

Reason

Question text matched the sports hard-marker "ac milan" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 4.5"?

As of Thu, 07 May 2026 03:54:41 GMT, YES is priced at 14% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +2.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 10, 2026 (2026-05-10T18:45:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.legaseriea.it/.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.legaseriea.it/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $0.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 7.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

No holder data from the Data API.