Solana Up or Down - June 3, 1PM ET
Probability
100¢
1h
+47.0pp
24h
+49.5pp
24h Vol
$3.8K
Liquidity
$891.01
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
YES price is near 100¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.
Treat as effectively priced-in, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 3, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Jun 3, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 50pp over 24h
Now 100¢; +47.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 0h.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $891 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 0 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 3, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Jun 3, 2026 — dispute window active.
Verification brief
price pinned not settledThe price is pinned near a rail, but price is not settlement. Verify the official status before treating it as final.
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary exchange price source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: Binance spot pair
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Price is not settlement
requiredVerify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢.
Current evidence: 100¢ current price
Orrery verification task Solana Up or Down - June 3, 1PM ET State: Pinned near YES — price pinned not settled Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary exchange price source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Price is not settlement: Verify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Solana Up or Down - June 3, 1PM ET State: price pinned not settled Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
Submit durable sources that map to one resolution criterion.
Recent drops
Contributor audit
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 18:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 0.0h
- 17:57SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 0h.
Price movement
+49.5pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
1- BUYUPJun 3, 17:54 UTC
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the SOL/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance SOL/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
solanaReason
Question text contains the high-signal keyword "solana" — matched the Crypto rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Solana Up or Down - June 3, 1PM ET"?
As of Wed, 03 Jun 2026 17:57:33 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +49.5pp in the last 24 hours, +47.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 3, 2026 (2026-06-03T18:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$3.8K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $3.8K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $891.01. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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