Spirit Airlines shutdown/liquidation by May 31?
Probability
25¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-1.5pp
24h Vol
$232.41
Liquidity
$14.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 25¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $14.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 842.9h
Price movement
-1.5pp over the last 24h, now 25¢.
Biggest hourly move: -24.5pp at 05:00 (to 26¢).
Show all 22 hour-by-hour ticks
- 21:00 · -4.0pp → 25¢
- 20:00 · -4.0pp → 25¢
- 19:00 · -4.0pp → 25¢
- 17:00 · -4.0pp → 25¢
- 15:00 · -3.0pp → 25¢
- 14:00 · -3.5pp → 25¢
- 12:00 · -4.0pp → 25¢
- 09:00 · +20.5pp → 26¢
- 08:00 · +8.5pp → 26¢
- 06:00 · -13.5pp → 26¢
- 05:00 · -24.5pp → 26¢
- 03:00 · +12.0pp → 26¢
- 02:00 · -7.5pp → 26¢
- 01:00 · -4.5pp → 26¢
- 22:00 · +4.0pp → 26¢
- 1d ago · +3.0pp → 27¢
- 1d ago · -9.5pp → 27¢
- 1d ago · -18.5pp → 27¢
- 1d ago · -21.5pp → 27¢
- 1d ago · -22.0pp → 26¢
- 1d ago · -22.0pp → 26¢
- 1d ago · -22.0pp → 26¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Spirit Airlines officially announces that it will cease operations or liquidate its assets by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Ceases operations refers to an official announcement from Spirit Airlines that it will stop operating commercial flights on a permanent basis. This includes announcements that flight operations will stop, even if operations are planned to continue temporarily. Capacity reductions or operational pauses will not qualify. Liquidate its assets refers to an official announcement from Spirit Airlines that it will sell off its assets with intent to close its business. This includes the court approval of a liquidation plan in bankruptcy proceedings. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from Spirit Airlines and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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