Spotify Monthly Active Users above 780M in Q1?
Probability
4¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
+0.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$756.22
Probability (last 7 days)
-3.2pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 53h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $756 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
- 3
Expiry in 53h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 53 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 53.1h
- 18:54SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 53h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.1pp over the last 24h, now 4¢.
Biggest hourly move: -21.5pp at 2d ago (to 5¢).
Show all 4 hour-by-hour ticks
- 16:00 · -3.5pp → 4¢
- 2d ago · -3.2pp → 2¢
- 2d ago · -4.5pp → 5¢
- 2d ago · -21.5pp → 5¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Spotify’s total monthly active users for the first fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company’s official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company’s official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Spotify’s official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company’s earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company’s official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company’s official earnings materialsAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 28, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.