Starmer out by May 19, 2026?
Probability
14¢
1h
-1.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$14.5K
Liquidity
$48.8K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 19, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dResolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 19, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 19, 12:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 136.6h
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 14¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
10- 0¢0.0
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Politics · Vol $3.0M
- 0¢0.0
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Politics · Vol $1.8M
- 7¢+0.1
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?
Politics · Vol $1.3M
- 4¢-1.6
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
Politics · Vol $1.2M
- 0¢0.0
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?
Politics · Vol $698.7K
- 2¢+1.4
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?
Politics · Vol $576.1K
Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between market creation and May 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
prime ministerReason
Prime Minister selection / confirmation markets — Politics regardless of country.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Starmer out by May 19, 2026?"?
As of Wed, 13 May 2026 19:25:24 GMT, YES is priced at 14% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, -1.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 19, 2026 (2026-05-19T12:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$14.5K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $14.5K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $48.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.