Spread: Carabobo FC (-2.5)
Probability
2¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-3.0pp
24h Vol
$42.78
Liquidity
$2.1K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.
Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 8, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 8, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
-22.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 3pp over 24h
Now 2¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 24h.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $2.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 24 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 8, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 8, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 00:30ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 23.6h
- 00:52SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 24h.
Price movement
-3.0pp over the last 24h, now 2¢.
Biggest hourly move: -18.5pp at 3d ago (to 10¢).
Show top 8 of 31 hourly moves
- 3d ago · -18.5pp → 10¢
- 4d ago · -14.5pp → 9¢
- 4d ago · -15.0pp → 9¢
- 4d ago · -15.0pp → 9¢
- 4d ago · -15.0pp → 9¢
- 4d ago · -15.0pp → 9¢
- 4d ago · -15.0pp → 9¢
- 4d ago · -15.0pp → 9¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
12- 7¢-1.5
Spread: Carabobo FC (-1.5)
Other · Vol $0.00
- 23¢-1.0
Spread: CA River Plate (-1.5)
Other · Vol $17.53
- 8¢-2.0
Spread: CA River Plate (-2.5)
Other · Vol $0.00
- 65¢0.0
Carabobo FC vs. CA River Plate: O/U 1.5
Other · Vol $0.00
- 39¢0.0
Carabobo FC vs. CA River Plate: O/U 2.5
Other · Vol $18.95
- 19¢0.0
Carabobo FC vs. CA River Plate: O/U 3.5
Other · Vol $7.10
- 8¢-1.5
Carabobo FC vs. CA River Plate: O/U 4.5
Other · Vol $0.00
- 43¢0.0
Carabobo FC vs. CA River Plate: Both Teams to Score
Other · Vol $0.00
Market Description
In the upcoming Copa Sudamericana game, scheduled for May 7 at 8:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Carabobo FC" if Carabobo FC win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "CA River Plate". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on conmebol.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Spread: Carabobo FC (-2.5)"?
As of Thu, 07 May 2026 00:52:10 GMT, YES is priced at 2% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -3.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -22.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 8, 2026 (2026-05-08T00:30:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.conmebol.com/sudamericana/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.conmebol.com/sudamericana/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$42.78 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $42.78. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
