Will Montevideo City Torque win on 2026-05-06?
Probability
100¢
1h
+11.5pp
24h
+48.9pp
24h Vol
$10.4K
Liquidity
$171.8K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 6, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- UMA status: proposed
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 6, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+51.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 01Price move
Up 49pp over 24h
Now 100¢; +11.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Volume pressure
Light volume — move on a thin book
Only $10.4k traded against $171.8k of visible liquidity (0.06× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.
- 03Active signal
Momentum observation firing
Probability moved up 48.9pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 04Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 6, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- UMA status: proposed
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 6, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 00:49SignalHIGH
Momentum up
Probability moved up 48.9pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 00:49SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 22:00ResolveHIGH
Expiry passed 3h ago; awaiting UMA confirmation
Price movement
+48.9pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Biggest hourly move: +50.0pp at 00:00 (to 100¢).
Show top 8 of 40 hourly moves
- 00:00 · +50.0pp → 100¢
- 22:00 · +5.5pp → 54¢
- 1d ago · +5.0pp → 53¢
- 1d ago · +5.0pp → 53¢
- 1d ago · +5.0pp → 53¢
- 1d ago · +5.0pp → 53¢
- 2d ago · +5.0pp → 53¢
- 2d ago · +5.0pp → 53¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
6Market Description
In the upcoming game, scheduled for May 6, 2026 If Montevideo City Torque wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
monteReason
Question text contains "monte" — matched the Sports keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Montevideo City Torque win on 2026-05-06?"?
As of Thu, 07 May 2026 00:49:51 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +48.9pp in the last 24 hours, +11.5pp in the last hour, and +51.4pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 6, 2026 (2026-05-06T22:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.conmebol.com/sudamericana/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.conmebol.com/sudamericana/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$10.4K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $10.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $171.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
