Will The MongolZ qualify to the CS Asia Championships 2026 playoffs?
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.4pp
24h
+35.4pp
24h Vol
$215.00
Liquidity
$1.7K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 25, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 25, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 35pp over 24h
Now 100¢; +0.4pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 62h. UMA dispute is active.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $1.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 62 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 25, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 25, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 25, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 62.0h
- 09:58SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 62h. UMA dispute is active.
Price movement
+35.4pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to which teams qualify for the Playoffs of the CS Asia Championships 2026 tournament, currently scheduled for May 20th - May 24th, 2026. Ties in standings will be broken according to the official tournament rules. If the CS Asia Championships 2026 is canceled, postponed, or if the official list of CS Asia Championships 2026 Playoffs participants is not published before June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source will be official information from the tournament organizer, Perfect World (https://www.counter-strike.net/). However, a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., Liquipedia at https://liquipedia.net/counterstrike/CS_Asia_Championships/2026) may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
playoffsReason
Question text contains "playoffs" — matched the Sports keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will The MongolZ qualify to the CS Asia Championships 2026 playoffs?"?
As of Fri, 22 May 2026 09:58:39 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +35.4pp in the last 24 hours, +0.4pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 25, 2026 (2026-05-25T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed).
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$215.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $215.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.