Trump sues Jimmy Kimmel by May 31?
Probability
6¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-2.0pp
24h Vol
$74.10
Liquidity
$11.6K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 6¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $11.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 715.1h
Price movement
-2.0pp over the last 24h, now 6¢.
Biggest hourly move: -34.0pp at 11:00 (to 8¢).
Show top 8 of 12 hourly moves
- 03:00 · -22.0pp → 6¢
- 20:00 · -30.5pp → 5¢
- 19:00 · -30.5pp → 5¢
- 17:00 · -33.5pp → 6¢
- 15:00 · -32.5pp → 7¢
- 14:00 · -31.5pp → 8¢
- 13:00 · -32.5pp → 8¢
- 11:00 · -34.0pp → 8¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump initiates a lawsuit against Jimmy Kimmel by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intent to sue or a legal threat will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution; a lawsuit must actually be filed in court. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant court. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Alerts
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