Fruitful-Heroine
0x1e9851cf9c439811937fc19c0a144c8a9fd06345
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$805.75
Total PnL
$-115.03
Realised
$45.88
Win rate
57%
89 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
MagicBlock FDV above $10M one day after launch?
133 shares @ 9.8¢·now 39.8¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$52.93
$39.87
- YES
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?
112 shares @ 7.0¢·now 42.7¢·exp Jan 29, 2027$47.74
$39.91
- YES
Bitcoin BIP-360 implemented in 2026?
101 shares @ 8.0¢·now 37.1¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$37.38
$29.33
- YES
Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 11?
120 shares @ 0.3¢·now 24.3¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$29.10
$28.72
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?
155 shares @ 7.6¢·now 13.2¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$20.41
$8.66
- YES
Printr FDV above $300M one day after launch?
200 shares @ 7.0¢·now 10.1¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$20.20
$6.20
- YES
Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?
102 shares @ 5.0¢·now 17.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.23
$13.11
- YES
Ledger IPO before 2027?
158 shares @ 8.0¢·now 10.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.83
$3.17
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?
200 shares @ 6.3¢·now 7.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$15.00
$2.40
- YES
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?
129 shares @ 9.9¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.80
$2.03
Recent activity
- TRADESELLHuman moon landing in 2026?$0.52Jul 28, 20:12 UTC
- TRADESELLDreamcash FDV above $400M one day after launch?$3.61Jul 28, 12:48 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?$0.01Jul 28, 07:44 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?$2.66Jul 28, 07:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill US GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?$0.09Jul 28, 04:23 UTC
- TRADESELLStandX FDV above $3B one day after launch?$2.38Jul 28, 03:08 UTC
- TRADESELLStandX FDV above $3B one day after launch?$4.88Jul 28, 03:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill between 16 and 18 albums be ranked #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026?$0.00Jul 28, 01:42 UTC
- REWARD$2.24Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.20Jul 27, 22:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?$0.73Jul 27, 22:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the National Action Party (PAN) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?$2.20Jul 27, 22:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?$7.57Jul 27, 21:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump pardon Edward Snowden before 2027?$1.50Jul 27, 21:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump pardon Edward Snowden before 2027?$1.28Jul 27, 21:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$1.60Jul 27, 19:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oprah Winfrey announce a Presidential run before 2027?$0.04Jul 27, 19:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US strike 11 countries in 2026?$3.33Jul 27, 13:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026?$3.21Jul 27, 12:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?$2.89Jul 27, 08:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
57% win rate over 89 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
89 closed markets, 57% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $2.87
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 07:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 20:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 89 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.